In an article from Newsmax University of Virginia Political Science Professor and analyst Larry Sabato made the statement this past Monday October 17, 2011 that if the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama would not only lose, but he would lose badly. I do wholeheartedly concur with that statement--at the moment! Sabato, one of the most quoted "college professors in the land" was giving an assessment based on all the latest data: economic, political, polling, and everything. Given the shape of the economy at this particular moment, I do agree that President Obama would lose right now barring there's no third party candidate running and giving voice to conservative values. Sabato said he would wait until July or August of next year to determine the outcome of the 2012 presidential election. That's a good idea because things are likely to change. Within the last few months, the president's approval rating has dropped steadily. His approval in handling the economy has received very low ratings. President Obama's poll numbers have been dropping at least since the debt ceiling debate and vote back in August. President Obama's poll numbers have slipped since.
Sabato was giving a state-by-state breakdown to Newsmax concerning how the 2012 presidential election will fare next year. Sabato said that the two swing states that Obama carried in 2008 he could possibly lose in 2012. The two states he mentioned are Indiana and North Carolina. Sabato said Indiana is gone regardless the outcome of the election. He said Florida would be a tough state for Obama to win, esp. if Senator Marco Rubio was to be on the GOP vice presidential ticket. President Obama carried Florida in 2008. Sabato says that Virginia could be an early indication on how well Obama will fare on election night next year.
I concur with Larry Sabato's assessment on President Obama. With that being said, we must take Sabato's prediction in context. There are three key words we must pay attention to: if held today. If the election were held today, President Obama would lose badly. Consequently, given the fact we live in a polarized country and given the fact that some Americans tend to be very fickle, you can't make the false assumption that President Obama is going to be a one-term president. If this was 2012 and President Obama's poll numbers were this low, then I would say his chances of winning are very improbable. However, many different scenarios could take place to change the equation. One of my fears is the probability that President Obama's campaign team might use a third-party candidate to split the GOP ticket. I believe if Mitt Romney wins the 2012 Republican nomination, then I think it's very probable there will be a third-party candidate running for president next year. I believe he will give voice to conservative values to. I believe he will be placed there for the purpose to ensure President Obama's re-election chances next year. Numerous things can happen between now and next year to change the equation. Those who have been predicting that President Obama will be a one-termer, such as media pundit Rush Limbaugh, political figures Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney, etc., better not become too self-confident. Anything can take place to throw the election in favor of President Obama. If that happens, we're in trouble as a nation. However, something positive could come from that even if President Obama is re-elected as president next year. We as Americans need to learn that the answer to America's problems doesn't stem from the president of the United States. I don't believe there's any potential presidential candidate that can set America on the right track. America's hope doesn't lie in a politician. America's only hope is the Lord. We need to look to the Lord instead of looking to the elected elite in Washington to straighten out America's problems. We may need to get to this point so we can realize that God alone is sovereign and only He can solve our problems. America has problems that only God can solve--not politicians from Washington.
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